Over Supply, Investor Demand, Interest Rates, May Decimate Toronto Condominium Prices

I often suggest to my American friends that the read the Globe and Mail for a non-partisan, third-party, observation of the US. They are so bombarded with the us-or-them approach in US media (everything is either a Republican source or a Democrat source) that the Globe’s articles on US politics and economy have become a powerful neutral source of information for many of them.

So it’s in the same light that I read a recent Wall Street Journal on the likelihood significant correction in the Toronto condominium market. I mean, if a US paper wants to spend reams of paper informing their citizens about a growing risk in our condominium market, maybe its worthwhile listening.

To summarize –

1. The WSJ equates Toronto to Miami – where foreign buyers created a real estate bubble that burst, leaving exceptionally large numbers of abandoned units.
2. There are 40,000 units under construction, increasing the supply by 20% in the next 24 months.
3. Bank of Canada Governor Carney has expressed condominium prices are being driven by investors not owners
4. 60% or so of all pre-construction unit sales are investors, not owners
5. Ratios are rising rapidly between yearly rent and unit cost (moving above the magic ratio of 1:16 yearly rent to unit cost)

As the condominium prices driven by investor demand have risen to about $305,000 – even a one percent increase in lending rates would require $255/month increase in rent to cover the new rate. Interest rate increases matched with a 20% increase in available units (which should help suppress the costs – or in investor terms, equity) in units, Toronto could see a very big and self-feeding drop in unit prices over the next two years.

So says a non-partisan observer looking in.