Toronto Condo Sales Are Freaking Insane – Still Think it is Speculation Driven

Toronto is Hot Hot Hot baby! The National Post is reporting – for only January through August 2011 – 18,055 new (NEW) condo units were purchased for $8.1 billion. That’s about $449,000/unit. Like I said – HOT!

We know that more than 50% of those are investor (non-resident) purchases which run highly leveraged (usually 25% down) . The Financial Post runs a good article where one of the showcased examples is an investor with seven properties – holding 2 million in value with 700k equity.

Based on some averages, the investor is spending about 100k/year on mortgages, condo fees, insurance and tax. The investor – if 100% rented all the time is likely pocketing about 34k/year. The game here is the investor is hoping the 7.5% yearly appreciate in condominium value for the last 15 years continues. With that, he’s pocketing and extra $150k/year. Not bad for the risk – $185k/year in income and equity.

So here are the concerns.

For the full year, Toronto may add upwards of 27,000 new condo units on top of current inventory. That’s 45% more than any other year on record. There is also that much inventory slated to be added each year for the next 3 years.

Second, real estate is hot because US, Europe, and many other jurisdictions are facing or have experienced a housing crash with no certainty of recovery. While New York announces the most expensive pre-sale units in history, large multi-story developments have been shelved right left and centre. If Europe tanks, housing prices are going to go low, low, low. With that, international investors have been buying Canada because of our stable economy and the start power of Mark Carney.

When local markets pick up in the US and Europe the money parked in Canadian real estate will flee back to their home countries.

Finally, even in the Canadian banking town Toronto (and I’ve said that banking cities will always perform well for real estate compared to the rest of the country), incomes are flat and the middle class is being squeezed (Bank of Canada indicated last month that income disparity grew significantly last year). That means there is a question if rent levels (which equal investor cash flow) can be supported – or if they will stagnate.

If we are lucky, because Toronto is our financial capital, we could see Toronto continue to appreciate every year until we have prices similar to New York. It’s not out of the question. But investor money is fickle. Both foreign and local money is sensitive to price change, and a slow down in Toronto cost per sqare foot will create a feedback cycle that would be vicious.

When Investors Abandon Units Owners Suffer Greatly

Ten weeks ago, Bank of Canada Governor Pat Carney warned that housing prices are now 4.5 times average household disposable income, or 30% higher than the 3.5 average of the last quarter century (In Vancouver they are 9.6). Further, he indicated that this is being driven by greed among speculators and investors. In Toronto, 60% of construction sales are by investors.

If the market value of condominiums comes down and as such triggers lower rental rates, investors will abandon under-water mortgages and incomes that don’t meet their bills. It’s hard to see this in the active market we have now, but all overly inflated values must mute, or drop, in value at some time.

Legislation in many regions of North America fail to do a very good job protecting owners in multi-residential dwellings when other owners stop paying their condominium fees, triggering a foreclosure on the deliquent units in order to recover the owed money to the corporation. For palces with poor legislation, when a unit is foreclosed on, the proceeds of the sale first go to the mortgagee, and not the condominium. The causes a chain of events that only further depress the value of the units, and jeopardize a large number of other owner’s homes.

For West Meade Condominium complex in West Nashville Tennessee, the chain of events has happened – 57 investor owned units in a 112 unit complex stopped paying their contributions, leaving the condominium $355,000 short on budget and repairs. Because there isn’t the money for maintenance, the building (and the value of all the units) is suffering. Because of decreased property value, the 57 units which have been court ordered to sell will likely garner less than the mortgage values. This leaves 55 upstanding owners in the hole for that sum on top of their own commitments to the corporation.

West Meade Condominium, without the owed amount, will be unable to meet ongoing insurance and utility bills, forcing the condominium into bankruptcy. Imagine as an upstanding owner having to move out of your home because of another owner’s fiscal imprudence.

In better jurisdictions, the condominium has first standing to collect fees owned. That means before the banks, and even before back taxes, the condominium gets paid out of the proceeds first. This is a fantastic situation. By giving the corporation first standing in a foreclosure (and also creating generous legislation allowing condominiums to bring their units to foreclosure on non-payment of contributions), the government protects the other owners from fiscal ruin, from non-maintained buildings, and from spiraling downward housing prices.

Good legislation for condominiums is important – especially given the fact that some owners can cause unchecked misfortune to others due to the nature of shared housing. With housing being a primary equity and destination of most people’s productive lives, housing requires more thorough consumer protections.

Banks are a form of commercialized savings. Housing is a form of self-directed savings which has significantly more public equity than all the banks combined. We’re willing to create massive legislation to protect bank based savings, we need the same friendly legislation for the most common and accessible public form of savings as well – people’s houses.