Great Salesman Barnett Asserts 10,000/sqf is 20 to 30% Cheaper than Market

Real Estate is usually the ultimate in capitalist negotiation, and ensures the price of the property reflects the true market value at the point of sale. The agent and seller are negotiating for the highest possible price, and the purchaser looks to capture the best property in their mind for their cash. In most cases the market has comparative units that can be used as benchmarks for price.

A sale completes only when both sides are happy with the value they receive from the transaction.

So when I see Gary Barnett, who just raised the price of a yet to be developed penthouse from $98.5 million to $110 million in the pre-build One57, says his properties are still 20 to 30% undervalued, well, I just have to chuckle. Anytime a seller tells you that by purchasing a property you’ll instantly increase your wealth – that the property will miraculously increase in value because you hold it – you have to just step back a minute.

Mr. Barnett has no interest at all in granting you any bonus value. It’s his job, his best interest, and it’s his positive (yes, a good trait here) greed to maximize the revenue on his sale. When you purchase his property (or purchase any property, from any realtor, no matter how inexpensive or gaggingly decadent) the property will be worth Exactly What You Paid For It.

The only possible case where the property will be worth something different than you paid, is if you paid too much. The only side of the negotiation that has the best information about the property is the seller. They hold more cards than you. They know, say, if the marvelous property that you bought with a fantastic view has a new development slated for build that will completely cut off that panoramic cityscape in only a few years.

It’s just lovely to know that the same cheezy realtor lines that I get at the other end of the market (yeah, I don’t have $110 million for a condo sadly) are the same lines at the top. Barrnett also describes the property as “there will be more room to increase prices in the near future” and “prices in the building are still extremely conservative given where the market is today”.

Ahhh, it’s the same pitch at every level of the market. “Buy now, it’s underlisted, and the market supports higher prices, but only if you buy. right. now.”

Why Toronto Condo Prices Will Absolutely Totally Go Down in 2012

Because I say so. And I’m only being partially facetious.

The base creation of property value is supply and demand. As long as demand exists beyond supply then the value of condominiums will remain static or grow. But that’s only part of the story for Toronto.

In Toronto the super vast (some reports over 80%) of pre-construction condos are investor purchased. Investors, versus homeowners, are looking for fiscal return. Cash. Money. Income. The Jackpot. The Dream. Investors are looking for a growth in their financial portfolio.

As long as there are three factors in housing their investment is good: (1) demand over supply and (2) revenue exists between purchase and sale (3) the perception of “need” to buy now exists in the market.

Let’s look at point 1: Toronto is about to bring on more units in the next two years than ever before. It is unknown if there will be enough population growth (and demographic movement) to create demand for all those units. While condo prices in Toronto have “always risen”, we have never seen this much inventory come on line over 3 years.

Point 2: Rents in Toronto have topped out at the moment. While the costs of condos have continually grown, the ability to rent them at a reasonable percentage of purchase price (about 6.25% of value per year) has not kept up. Rent levels are well below this ratio. This means its great value for renters, but returns for investors don’t exist on rental income.

Point 3: Perception of “need to buy” – and this one is important. If buyers think the market is hot (whether this is the Toronto area in total, or just the building they are interested in) they will pay the bucks and pay them now. Buyers who see competition for their “perfect” home will often become irrational about the purchase price. Investors and sellers love that. But as people like me (and I’ve blogged several times about my worry about Toronto prices),the Globe and Mail, the Financial Post (indicating a 15% Toronto correction), banks, and economic reports all start talking about an economic slowdown in condo prices – then buyers start believing that. Not only do they start believing it, they start acting on it. They start thinking at they might just be able to wait, or another awesome condo may come on sale slightly cheaper. Perception slows the market. That’s why in part Real Estate Boards always issue the most positive statement about demand. They are in the business of supporting good housing valuations – meaning larger commissions to their agents.

So when I say Toronto housing prices will go down because I say so, it’s because I’m part of the group of people writing about the downturn in prices. The more people writing with this opinion, the more housing prices will stagnate and likely drop. And I think there are going to be a lot of people writing about a downturn.

And those people who believe foreign investors will save housing prices – as foreign investors believe that Toronto is reaching a peak, or just growing slowly, they will sell and move their investment to the US for better returns. After years and years of depressed housing prices, newspapers and pundits are starting to whisper “the long US housing burst may be bottoming”. If there’s one thing that a good investor knows – buy low and sell high. So even if there is still growth in Toronto – there’s likely bigger growth south of the border.

$100,000/Year Condominium Fee

I always wondered what those high-end condominiums cost in maintenance fees. In Australia, an 8600 sqf condo at the Bennelong Apartments (nicknamed the Toaster) – which includes cellar, billiard room, an exclusive elevator and a fantastic view of the Sydney Opera House, is about $100,000/year in condo fees.

It is also for sale, and you’ll have to pony up. 91 year old owner Cyril Maloney is asking $30 million (AUS, which is about on par at the moment) and flat out turned down an offer for $22 million.

It is a pretty building.

Toronto Condo Market – Boom, Bust – Banks Divided

Toronto. Again.

The question is – will the growth continue, even with 21,000 units coming on-board this year and the same scheduled for next. The Greater Toronto Region has about 5.2 million people in it, and a growth rate of about 0.4%. That would suggest about 21,000 new people (including births) – if we average it out to the 2.1 people/family, that’s about 10,000 new units required. So we have an oversupply of 11,000 units/year in just condos alone – not including low-density housing.

To this the Bank of Canada, in regards to Toronto, has indicated:

The supply of completed but unoccupied condominiums is elevated, which suggest a heightened risk of a correction in this market.

In July of this year, the RBC said:

We believe that the attractiveness of investing in condominiums will gradually diminish … [and the overall housing market will be] mainly flat in 2011 relative to 2010, with some wakness emerging next year.

If you’re pro about market growth (average unit cost in November was up 8% from last year), National Bank Financial analyst Stefane Marion indicates that the current inventory of Toronto units could sell in 19.3 months – well below market lows of up to 48 months historically. You can also see in that Montreal, a reasonable close major metropolitan, condominium construction is up 68% year over year. It is unclear if this is added competition or an additional indicator that growth continues in Canada – especially the eastern heart.

I still think it’s due for a correction – earlier reports this year indicated 70% of new condominiums are investor funded. With world markets still tumbling (down 2% yesterday in financial sectors) investors will start limiting their exposure to a housing bubble. This in itself will start the downward trend on cost.

 

Recession Proof-ish Condos: Buy In Financial Districts

I’ve mentioned many times that the condominium market in financial centres will always retain more value in a recession and bounce back quicker. New stats out of NY continue to show this trend.

Top end condominiums (the top 10% by price in any quarter) are down a very modest 16% from their height in Q1 of 2008 (4.17m vs. 4.99m) – where outside the financial district we are easily seeing values that have plummeted 60%, and in rare cases 90% (You can get HOA property for as low as $52 per sq. foot in Las Vegas).

This quarter and the last quarter have the highest number of 10m+ units sold in Manhattan. 12 completed sales of units 20m+ occurred in the three months ending September 30^th (here’s one).

Finally, One57 developer still believes he’ll sell out his development – the tallest residential building in Manhattan when it goes up – at prices ranging from $3,500 – $8,000 a sq. foot (up to $91,425 a sq. m.).

It’s nice to know the 1% are still buying, and buying, and buying.

Downtown Grocery Needs Targeted By 7-Eleven

When it comes to downtown grocery: retail space can be very expensive, grocery only runs a 1-2% profit margin, and delivery of goods to the store can be a cumbersome process. It’s no wonder in a recent interview Ken Barnes, regional development director for 7-Eleven indicated Toronto’s booming condominium market is pushing the need for more convenience stores.

With the lack of full feature supermarkets (even micro grocery stores – those under 5000 s.f.) there is definitely room for a full on assault by the quick-stop developer.

The problem will be that convenience stores have half the number of “heart-healthy” foods as neighborhood grocery stores, and only one quarter of a supermarket.

This lack of access to healthy food for heavily urbanized (and Calgary has a core with not even a single micro grocery store open late) citizens has been blamed for rise in obesity and general health issues for urban dwellers.

It can be hoped that there’s some nice individually packaged bananas at least in these shops.

Toronto and Singapore Experience the Shoebox Condo

Some trends cover the world, but the underlying reasons may be different. For example, Singapore and Toronto both are experiencing a surge in shoebox condos (500 sqf or less) but for significantly different reasons.

With Singapore, prices on condominiums are averaging $1185USD/sqf – putting the price of anything lager than shoebox well outside the financial means of most local residents.

In Toronto, price is not nearly as sensitive (running about $630USD/sqf), but tax legislation is pushing units to list at $390k or less or suffer, and one bedroom condominiums now make up almost 60% of new construction. This forces smaller shoebox units to be built in order help create consumer choice in a market that prefers one bedroom condominiums.

In both cases though – Singapore and Toronto are both seeing massive preconstruction sales to investors and foreign buyers. This is likely a strong incentive to build shoebox condominiums, as they become more “affordable investments” and require smaller capital down. If that’s the case, shoebox condominiums are creating a new form of downtown transient population – encouraging renters to populate the cores of each city.

I live in an 1150 sqf 2 bedroom condo – with wife and 2 cats. At 500 sqf, one of those would have to go! (I love you hunny!)

$340,000 Garage – Seriously, That’s Just For a Garage

Just a few days ago I blogged about a company in the US building storage space condominiums. These units are not zoned for human habitation and are intended as owned storage on Units range up to 1250 sq.ft. and cost about $82,000. I though it was a fabulous idea – a good use of condominium controlled development, it meets a need, and reasonably priced.

They have been outdone.

A luxury car garage – 34 units total – called The Dens – has been recently been completed near Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The kicker – a 1600 sq.ft. garage was purchased for $340,000.

In other news, reported by the Globe and Mail today, income inequality is rising quickly in Canada.

Parking Spaces the New Investment Vehicle in Gridlocked Housing Market

For high density housing, multiple parking stalls attached to a unit can be a major incentive for purchasers. Where developers will commonly building only slightly more than one parking spot per unit, the option to have a second stall is always appreciated – especially with the wealthy who often own multiple vehicles.

There are normally two types of parking associated with condominiums – assigned and deeded.

Assigned parking is normally common property that the board assigns to units, sometimes on a yearly or multi-year basis, as an exclusive use area much like balconies. The space is common property, but you are the sole person allowed to access it. Transfer of the stall is at the control of the board.

Deeded acts much like your unit – often with its own tax roll. These can be sold or traded just like a unit can be, but often with caveats on who can buy. Deeded titles normally have unit factors attached to them as well – so selling or buying them will change your monthly condominium contribution.

A good condominium corporation will have bylaws in place that limit ownership of a stall to those who also own units. If you sell your unit, you are also required to sell your stalls to other owners (normally the person buying). Bad corporations allow anybody to own parking stalls – which over time tends to put them in non-owner hands, managed by people who have little incentive in the maintenance of the building as a residence.

For many urban centers, parking spots are maintaining their value or rising – even when units are dropping in price. A parking unit in Boston (200 sq. feet) sold for $125,000. Toronto sold a spot for $100,000.

These are in part driven by municipal regulations that are either lowering the minimum number of parking stalls developers are required to build per unit built, or in some cases capping the amount of stalls within very dense regions in order to reduce traffic issues. Both of these will force parking stall prices higher, especially when newer developments (with fewer parking spaces) get infilled into spaces previous held by lower density and higher parking ratio buildings.

A Condo you will never be able to afford – $98.5 Million USD

The tag line is:

Not only do you live at the centre of the universe, you overlook it

And for that right person who feels that they live (nay, are) the centre of the universe, there is now a condominium in construction that will have enough square footage to hold every cranny of your massiveness. The one57.

There are actually two (2!) of these apartments at this price – the 75^th floor 13,554 ($7,267/sqf) square foot, and the (for the more refined) 90^th floor 10,923 ($9,018/sqf) square foot residence.

I can honestly say that I don’t have the funds to live there.